QQ vs AQs

When QQ and AQs get all in before the flop, QQ wins 65.8% of the time and AQs takes 34.2%. Broken down, QQ wins outright 65.2%, chops 1.2% and loses 33.6% — a margin of 31.6 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 65.8% (for example Qs Qh against Ad Qd); with no shared suit it is 65.8% (Qs Qh against Ad Qd). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes QQ 53.2%, AQs 30.3%, random 16.5%. QQ gives up 12.6 points and AQs gives up 3.9, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, QQ is worth 79.9% against a random hand (rank 3 of 169) and AQs is worth 66.2% (rank 10). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13.7 points, yet head to head the gap is 31.6 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, QQ scoops roughly 65 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 34. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, QQ would be down to 24.5% and AQs to 21.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AQs's side, 34.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.92:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 34.2% of the pot you are playing for. QQ holds the other 65.8% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQs really does hold exactly AQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, QQ's 65.8% moves. Use the individual pages for QQ and AQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, QQ is ahead 81.5% of the time and AQs 18.5%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When QQ leads on the flop, AQs comes back on the turn and river 20.5% of the time. When AQs leads on the flop, QQ turns it around 6.48% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 80.9% of the time from the flop and 88.9% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, QQ leads 73.7% and AQs 26.1%. Counted exhaustively, QQ finishes with 65.73% equity (the 65.8% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).