QQ vs AQo
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- QQ Win
- 69.0%
- Tie
- 1.3%
- QQ Lose
- 29.7%
- Card combinations
- 36
- QQ vs random
- 79.9% · #3
- AQo vs random
- 64.4% · #14
Win, tie and loss for QQ
When QQ and AQo get all in before the flop, QQ wins 69.6% of the time and AQo takes 30.4%. Broken down, QQ wins outright 69.0%, chops 1.3% and loses 29.7% — a margin of 39.2 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 69.5% (for example Qs Qh against As Qd); with no shared suit it is 69.9% (Qs Qh against Ad Qc). That is a spread of 0.37 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes QQ 56.4%, AQo 26.1%, random 17.5%. QQ gives up 13.2 points and AQo gives up 4.3, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, QQ is worth 79.9% against a random hand (rank 3 of 169) and AQo is worth 64.4% (rank 14). The gap between them in the ranking is only 15.5 points, yet head to head the gap is 39.2 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, QQ scoops roughly 69 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 30. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, QQ would be down to 24.5% and AQo to 17.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AQo's side, 30.4% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.29:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 30.4% of the pot you are playing for. QQ holds the other 69.6% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQo really does hold exactly AQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, QQ's 69.6% moves. Use the individual pages for QQ and AQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | QQ Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Qs Qh vs Ad Qc | 12 | 69.9% | 69.2% | 1.2% | 29.5% |
| One shared suit | Qs Qh vs As Qd | 24 | 69.5% | 68.8% | 1.4% | 29.8% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, QQ is ahead 82.4% of the time and AQo 17.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When QQ leads on the flop, AQo comes back on the turn and river 16.3% of the time. When AQo leads on the flop, QQ turns it around 5.82% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 84.2% of the time from the flop and 90.7% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, QQ leads 76.3% and AQo 23.5%. Counted exhaustively, QQ finishes with 69.70% equity (the 69.6% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | QQ wins | Tie | AQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQ ahead | 82.4% | 82.5% | 1.14% | 16.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQo ahead | 17.6% | 5.82% | 2.02% | 92.2% |
| After the turn | How often | QQ wins | Tie | AQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQ ahead | 76.3% | 89.4% | 0.884% | 9.67% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.229% | 1.47% | 91.9% | 6.65% |
| AQo ahead | 23.5% | 3.44% | 1.76% | 94.8% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AQo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79.9% | 64.4% |
| 2 | 65.0% | 46.9% |
| 4 | 44.9% | 30.3% |
| 8 | 24.5% | 17.5% |
Related
FAQ
QQ or AQo — which is ahead preflop?
QQ is the favourite. QQ takes 69.6% and AQo 30.4%, a margin of 39.2 points, with 1.3% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change QQ vs AQo?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 69.5%, and with no shared suit it is 69.9% — a swing of up to 0.37 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is QQ 56.4%, AQo 26.1%, random 17.5%. QQ drops 13.2 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in QQ vs AQo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 14.5% of the time (level spots left out). When QQ leads, AQo comes back 16.3%. When AQo leads, QQ comes back 5.82%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
428 words / 28 distinct figures — Method