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AQo vs KQs

AQo
VS
KQs
70.5%
equity for AQo — KQs takes 29.5%

Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

AQo Win
69.9%
Tie
1.1%
AQo Lose
29.0%
Card combinations
36
AQo vs random
64.4% · #14
KQs vs random
63.4% · #16
Breakdown

Win, tie and loss for AQo

Win 69.9%Lose 29.0%

When AQo and KQs get all in before the flop, AQo wins 70.5% of the time and KQs takes 29.5%. Broken down, AQo wins outright 69.9%, chops 1.1% and loses 29.0% — a margin of 41 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 69.9% (for example As Qh against Kd Qd); with one shared suit it is 71.6% (As Qh against Ks Qs). That is a spread of 1.69 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQo 45.8%, KQs 26.4%, random 27.8%. AQo gives up 24.7 points and KQs gives up 3.1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AQo is worth 64.4% against a random hand (rank 14 of 169) and KQs is worth 63.4% (rank 16). The gap between them in the ranking is only 1 points, yet head to head the gap is 41 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQo scoops roughly 70 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 29. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQo would be down to 17.5% and KQs to 20.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From KQs's side, 29.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.39:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 29.5% of the pot you are playing for. AQo holds the other 70.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KQs really does hold exactly KQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQo's 70.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AQo and KQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

By shared suits

Overlapping suits move the number

200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.

ConditionExampleCombosAQo EquityWinTieLose
No shared suitAs Qh vs Kd Qd2469.9%69.4%1.1%29.5%
One shared suitAs Qh vs Ks Qs1271.6%71.0%1.2%27.8%
Three-way

Adding a random third hand

200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.

AQo
45.8%
vs heads-up -24.7pt
KQs
26.4%
vs heads-up -3.1pt
Random third hand
27.8%
Player count

At a bigger table

Random opponentsAQoKQs
164.4%63.4%
246.9%47.2%
430.3%32.3%
817.5%20.4%

Related

FAQ

AQo or KQs — which is ahead preflop?

AQo is the favourite. AQo takes 70.5% and KQs 29.5%, a margin of 41 points, with 1.1% of hands ending in a chop.

Do the suits change AQo vs KQs?

Yes. With no shared suit it is 69.9%, and with one shared suit it is 71.6% — a swing of up to 1.69 points.

What happens three-way?

With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AQo 45.8%, KQs 26.4%, random 27.8%. AQo drops 24.7 points compared with heads-up.

433 words / 26 distinct figures — Method