AQs vs KQs

When AQs and KQs get all in before the flop, AQs wins 71.5% of the time and KQs takes 28.6%. Broken down, AQs wins outright 70.9%, chops 1.1% and loses 28.0% — a margin of 42.9 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 71.5% (for example As Qs against Kh Qh); with no shared suit it is 71.5% (As Qs against Kh Qh). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQs 48.6%, KQs 25.5%, random 25.9%. AQs gives up 22.9 points and KQs gives up 3.1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AQs is worth 66.2% against a random hand (rank 10 of 169) and KQs is worth 63.4% (rank 16). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 42.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQs scoops roughly 71 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 28. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQs would be down to 21.1% and KQs to 20.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From KQs's side, 28.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.5:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 28.6% of the pot you are playing for. AQs holds the other 71.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KQs really does hold exactly KQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQs's 71.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AQs and KQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AQs is ahead 83.2% of the time and KQs 16.8%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AQs leads on the flop, KQs comes back on the turn and river 18.1% of the time. When KQs leads on the flop, AQs turns it around 21.8% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 80.2% of the time from the flop and 87.9% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AQs leads 77.4% and KQs 22.4%. Counted exhaustively, AQs finishes with 71.42% equity (the 71.5% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).