AKs vs AQs

When AKs and AQs get all in before the flop, AKs wins 71.1% of the time and AQs takes 28.9%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 69.0%, chops 4.2% and loses 26.8% — a margin of 42.2 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 71.1% (for example As Ks against Ah Qh); with no shared suit it is 71.1% (As Ks against Ah Qh). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 48.8%, AQs 25.2%, random 26.1%. AKs gives up 22.4 points and AQs gives up 3.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and AQs is worth 66.2% (rank 10). The gap between them in the ranking is only 1 points, yet head to head the gap is 42.2 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 69 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 27. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and AQs to 21.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AQs's side, 28.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.46:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 28.9% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 71.1% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQs really does hold exactly AQs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 71.1% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and AQs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 83.6% of the time and AQs 16.4%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKs leads on the flop, AQs comes back on the turn and river 16.7% of the time. When AQs leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 21.8% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 78.3% of the time from the flop and 86.3% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKs leads 77.4% and AQs 21.5%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 71.28% equity (the 71.1% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).