AKs vs ATs

When AKs and ATs get all in before the flop, AKs wins 70.9% of the time and ATs takes 29.1%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 68.8%, chops 4.2% and loses 27.0% — a margin of 41.8 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 70.9% (for example As Ks against Ah Th); with no shared suit it is 70.9% (As Ks against Ah Th). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 48.9%, ATs 24.9%, random 26.2%. AKs gives up 22 points and ATs gives up 4.2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and ATs is worth 64.6% (rank 13). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.6 points, yet head to head the gap is 41.8 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 69 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 27. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and ATs to 18.9%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From ATs's side, 29.1% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.44:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 29.1% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 70.9% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes ATs really does hold exactly ATs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 70.9% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and ATs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.