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AKs vs A5o

AKs
VS
A5o
73.9%
equity for AKs — A5o takes 26.1%

Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

AKs Win
71.7%
Tie
4.5%
AKs Lose
23.9%
Card combinations
36
AKs vs random
67.2% · #8
A5o vs random
57.7% · #42
Breakdown

Win, tie and loss for AKs

Win 71.7%Lose 23.9%

When AKs and A5o get all in before the flop, AKs wins 73.9% of the time and A5o takes 26.1%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 71.7%, chops 4.5% and loses 23.9% — a margin of 47.8 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 73.7% (for example As Ks against Ah 5s); with no shared suit it is 74.0% (As Ks against Ah 5d). That is a spread of 0.31 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 52.1%, A5o 18.5%, random 29.4%. AKs gives up 21.8 points and A5o gives up 7.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and A5o is worth 57.7% (rank 42). The gap between them in the ranking is only 9.5 points, yet head to head the gap is 47.8 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 72 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 24. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and A5o to 11.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From A5o's side, 26.1% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.83:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 26.1% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 73.9% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes A5o really does hold exactly A5o; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 73.9% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and A5o to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

By shared suits

Overlapping suits move the number

200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.

ConditionExampleCombosAKs EquityWinTieLose
No shared suitAs Ks vs Ah 5d2474.0%71.8%4.4%23.8%
One shared suitAs Ks vs Ah 5s1273.7%71.4%4.6%24.0%
Three-way

Adding a random third hand

200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.

AKs
52.1%
vs heads-up -21.8pt
A5o
18.5%
vs heads-up -7.6pt
Random third hand
29.4%
Player count

At a bigger table

Random opponentsAKsA5o
167.2%57.7%
250.3%38.0%
435.4%22.0%
822.4%11.4%

Related

FAQ

AKs or A5o — which is ahead preflop?

AKs is the favourite. AKs takes 73.9% and A5o 26.1%, a margin of 47.8 points, with 4.5% of hands ending in a chop.

Do the suits change AKs vs A5o?

Yes. With one shared suit it is 73.7%, and with no shared suit it is 74.0% — a swing of up to 0.31 points.

What happens three-way?

With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AKs 52.1%, A5o 18.5%, random 29.4%. AKs drops 21.8 points compared with heads-up.

433 words / 30 distinct figures — Method