AKs vs AQo
Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
- AKs Win
- 73.3%
- Tie
- 4.4%
- AKs Lose
- 22.3%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
- AQo vs random
- 64.4% · #14
Win, tie and loss for AKs
When AKs and AQo get all in before the flop, AKs wins 75.5% of the time and AQo takes 24.5%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 73.3%, chops 4.4% and loses 22.3% — a margin of 51.1 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 75.3% (for example As Ks against Ah Qs); with no shared suit it is 75.7% (As Ks against Ah Qd). That is a spread of 0.41 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 51.2%, AQo 21.0%, random 27.8%. AKs gives up 24.4 points and AQo gives up 3.5, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and AQo is worth 64.4% (rank 14). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 51.1 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 73 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 22. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and AQo to 17.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AQo's side, 24.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.08:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 24.5% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 75.5% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQo really does hold exactly AQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 75.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and AQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AKs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ks vs Ah Qd | 24 | 75.7% | 73.5% | 4.4% | 22.1% |
| One shared suit | As Ks vs Ah Qs | 12 | 75.3% | 73.0% | 4.5% | 22.5% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 84.4% of the time and AQo 15.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AKs leads on the flop, AQo comes back on the turn and river 12.3% of the time. When AQo leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 22.2% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 81.7% of the time from the flop and 88.0% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AKs leads 79.8% and AQo 19.0%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 75.45% equity (the 75.5% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AKs wins | Tie | AQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 84.4% | 82.6% | 5.08% | 12.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AQo ahead | 15.6% | 22.2% | 0.966% | 76.8% |
| After the turn | How often | AKs wins | Tie | AQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 79.8% | 88.4% | 4.26% | 7.29% |
| Level (same hand) | 1.11% | 13.1% | 81.6% | 5.34% |
| AQo ahead | 19.0% | 12.9% | 0.716% | 86.4% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AKs | AQo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67.2% | 64.4% |
| 2 | 50.3% | 46.9% |
| 4 | 35.4% | 30.3% |
| 8 | 22.4% | 17.5% |
Related
FAQ
AKs or AQo — which is ahead preflop?
AKs is the favourite. AKs takes 75.5% and AQo 24.5%, a margin of 51.1 points, with 4.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AKs vs AQo?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 75.3%, and with no shared suit it is 75.7% — a swing of up to 0.41 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AKs 51.2%, AQo 21.0%, random 27.8%. AKs drops 24.4 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AKs vs AQo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 13.8% of the time (level spots left out). When AKs leads, AQo comes back 12.3%. When AQo leads, AKs comes back 22.2%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
433 words / 29 distinct figures — Method