169hands
MENU
MATCHUPPREFLOPALL-IN

AKs vs AQo

AKs
VS
AQo
75.5%
equity for AKs — AQo takes 24.5%

Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

AKs Win
73.3%
Tie
4.4%
AKs Lose
22.3%
Card combinations
36
AKs vs random
67.2% · #8
AQo vs random
64.4% · #14
Breakdown

Win, tie and loss for AKs

Win 73.3%Lose 22.3%

When AKs and AQo get all in before the flop, AKs wins 75.5% of the time and AQo takes 24.5%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 73.3%, chops 4.4% and loses 22.3% — a margin of 51.1 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 75.3% (for example As Ks against Ah Qs); with no shared suit it is 75.7% (As Ks against Ah Qd). That is a spread of 0.41 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 51.2%, AQo 21.0%, random 27.8%. AKs gives up 24.4 points and AQo gives up 3.5, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and AQo is worth 64.4% (rank 14). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 51.1 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 73 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 22. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and AQo to 17.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AQo's side, 24.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.08:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 24.5% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 75.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AQo really does hold exactly AQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 75.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and AQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

By shared suits

Overlapping suits move the number

200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.

ConditionExampleCombosAKs EquityWinTieLose
No shared suitAs Ks vs Ah Qd2475.7%73.5%4.4%22.1%
One shared suitAs Ks vs Ah Qs1275.3%73.0%4.5%22.5%
Three-way

Adding a random third hand

200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.

AKs
51.2%
vs heads-up -24.4pt
AQo
21.0%
vs heads-up -3.5pt
Random third hand
27.8%
Player count

At a bigger table

Random opponentsAKsAQo
167.2%64.4%
250.3%46.9%
435.4%30.3%
822.4%17.5%

Related

FAQ

AKs or AQo — which is ahead preflop?

AKs is the favourite. AKs takes 75.5% and AQo 24.5%, a margin of 51.1 points, with 4.4% of hands ending in a chop.

Do the suits change AKs vs AQo?

Yes. With one shared suit it is 75.3%, and with no shared suit it is 75.7% — a swing of up to 0.41 points.

What happens three-way?

With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AKs 51.2%, AQo 21.0%, random 27.8%. AKs drops 24.4 points compared with heads-up.

433 words / 29 distinct figures — Method