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AQo vs KQo

AQo
VS
KQo
74.5%
equity for AQo — KQo takes 25.5%

Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

AQo Win
73.9%
Tie
1.1%
AQo Lose
24.9%
Card combinations
108
AQo vs random
64.4% · #14
KQo vs random
61.5% · #23
Breakdown

Win, tie and loss for AQo

Win 73.9%Lose 24.9%

When AQo and KQo get all in before the flop, AQo wins 74.5% of the time and KQo takes 25.5%. Broken down, AQo wins outright 73.9%, chops 1.1% and loses 24.9% — a margin of 49 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 74.3% (for example As Qh against Kd Qc); with both suits shared it is 74.8% (As Qh against Kh Qs). That is a spread of 0.48 points across the 108 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQo 48.2%, KQo 22.3%, random 29.5%. AQo gives up 26.3 points and KQo gives up 3.2, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AQo is worth 64.4% against a random hand (rank 14 of 169) and KQo is worth 61.5% (rank 23). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 49 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQo scoops roughly 74 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 25. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQo would be down to 17.5% and KQo to 16.7%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From KQo's side, 25.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.92:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 25.5% of the pot you are playing for. AQo holds the other 74.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 108 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KQo really does hold exactly KQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQo's 74.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AQo and KQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

By shared suits

Overlapping suits move the number

200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.

ConditionExampleCombosAQo EquityWinTieLose
No shared suitAs Qh vs Kd Qc2474.3%73.8%1.1%25.2%
One shared suitAs Qh vs Ks Qd7274.5%74.0%1.1%24.9%
Both suits sharedAs Qh vs Kh Qs1274.8%74.2%1.2%24.6%
Three-way

Adding a random third hand

200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.

AQo
48.2%
vs heads-up -26.3pt
KQo
22.3%
vs heads-up -3.2pt
Random third hand
29.5%
Player count

At a bigger table

Random opponentsAQoKQo
164.4%61.5%
246.9%44.4%
430.3%29.2%
817.5%16.7%

Related

FAQ

AQo or KQo — which is ahead preflop?

AQo is the favourite. AQo takes 74.5% and KQo 25.5%, a margin of 49 points, with 1.1% of hands ending in a chop.

Do the suits change AQo vs KQo?

Yes. With no shared suit it is 74.3%, and with both suits shared it is 74.8% — a swing of up to 0.48 points.

What happens three-way?

With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AQo 48.2%, KQo 22.3%, random 29.5%. AQo drops 26.3 points compared with heads-up.

433 words / 28 distinct figures — Method