AQs vs KQo
Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
- AQs Win
- 75.0%
- Tie
- 1.1%
- AQs Lose
- 23.9%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AQs vs random
- 66.2% · #10
- KQo vs random
- 61.5% · #23
Win, tie and loss for AQs
When AQs and KQo get all in before the flop, AQs wins 75.6% of the time and KQo takes 24.4%. Broken down, AQs wins outright 75.0%, chops 1.1% and loses 23.9% — a margin of 51.1 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 75.3% (for example As Qs against Ks Qh); with no shared suit it is 75.7% (As Qs against Kh Qd). That is a spread of 0.47 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQs 51.0%, KQo 21.5%, random 27.5%. AQs gives up 24.6 points and KQo gives up 2.9, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AQs is worth 66.2% against a random hand (rank 10 of 169) and KQo is worth 61.5% (rank 23). The gap between them in the ranking is only 4.7 points, yet head to head the gap is 51.1 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQs scoops roughly 75 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 24. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQs would be down to 21.1% and KQo to 16.7%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From KQo's side, 24.4% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3.1:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 24.4% of the pot you are playing for. AQs holds the other 75.6% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes KQo really does hold exactly KQo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQs's 75.6% moves. Use the individual pages for AQs and KQo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AQs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Qs vs Kh Qd | 24 | 75.7% | 75.2% | 1.1% | 23.7% |
| One shared suit | As Qs vs Ks Qh | 12 | 75.3% | 74.6% | 1.2% | 24.1% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AQs is ahead 84.1% of the time and KQo 15.9%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AQs leads on the flop, KQo comes back on the turn and river 13.8% of the time. When KQo leads on the flop, AQs turns it around 22.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 83.7% of the time from the flop and 89.9% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AQs leads 79.9% and KQo 20.0%. Counted exhaustively, AQs finishes with 75.58% equity (the 75.6% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AQs wins | Tie | KQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs ahead | 84.1% | 85.0% | 1.21% | 13.8% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| KQo ahead | 15.9% | 22.3% | 0.718% | 77.0% |
| After the turn | How often | AQs wins | Tie | KQo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs ahead | 79.9% | 90.7% | 1.14% | 8.18% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.144% | 5.40% | 90.3% | 4.27% |
| KQo ahead | 20.0% | 13.0% | 0.438% | 86.6% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AQs | KQo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66.2% | 61.5% |
| 2 | 49.7% | 44.4% |
| 4 | 34.0% | 29.2% |
| 8 | 21.1% | 16.7% |
Related
FAQ
AQs or KQo — which is ahead preflop?
AQs is the favourite. AQs takes 75.6% and KQo 24.4%, a margin of 51.1 points, with 1.1% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AQs vs KQo?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 75.3%, and with no shared suit it is 75.7% — a swing of up to 0.47 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AQs 51.0%, KQo 21.5%, random 27.5%. AQs drops 24.6 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AQs vs KQo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 15.1% of the time (level spots left out). When AQs leads, KQo comes back 13.8%. When KQo leads, AQs comes back 22.3%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
433 words / 28 distinct figures — Method