AQs vs AJo
Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
- AQs Win
- 72.2%
- Tie
- 5.5%
- AQs Lose
- 22.3%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AQs vs random
- 66.2% · #10
- AJo vs random
- 63.6% · #15
Win, tie and loss for AQs
When AQs and AJo get all in before the flop, AQs wins 75.0% of the time and AJo takes 25.0%. Broken down, AQs wins outright 72.2%, chops 5.5% and loses 22.3% — a margin of 49.9 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 74.6% (for example As Qs against Ah Js); with no shared suit it is 75.1% (As Qs against Ah Jd). That is a spread of 0.5 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQs 50.3%, AJo 21.0%, random 28.7%. AQs gives up 24.7 points and AJo gives up 4, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AQs is worth 66.2% against a random hand (rank 10 of 169) and AJo is worth 63.6% (rank 15). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.6 points, yet head to head the gap is 49.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQs scoops roughly 72 pots, splits about 5, and loses the remaining 22. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQs would be down to 21.1% and AJo to 16.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AJo's side, 25.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 3:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 25.0% of the pot you are playing for. AQs holds the other 75.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJo really does hold exactly AJo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQs's 75.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AQs and AJo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AQs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Qs vs Ah Jd | 24 | 75.1% | 72.4% | 5.4% | 22.2% |
| One shared suit | As Qs vs Ah Js | 12 | 74.6% | 71.8% | 5.6% | 22.6% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AQs is ahead 84.4% of the time and AJo 15.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AQs leads on the flop, AJo comes back on the turn and river 12.5% of the time. When AJo leads on the flop, AQs turns it around 23.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 80.2% of the time from the flop and 86.8% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AQs leads 79.5% and AJo 19.0%. Counted exhaustively, AQs finishes with 74.96% equity (the 75.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AQs wins | Tie | AJo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs ahead | 84.4% | 81.1% | 6.36% | 12.5% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AJo ahead | 15.6% | 23.7% | 1.05% | 75.3% |
| After the turn | How often | AQs wins | Tie | AJo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs ahead | 79.5% | 87.2% | 5.32% | 7.50% |
| Level (same hand) | 1.42% | 13.3% | 80.9% | 5.79% |
| AJo ahead | 19.0% | 14.0% | 0.750% | 85.3% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AQs | AJo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66.2% | 63.6% |
| 2 | 49.7% | 45.4% |
| 4 | 34.0% | 28.7% |
| 8 | 21.1% | 16.1% |
Related
FAQ
AQs or AJo — which is ahead preflop?
AQs is the favourite. AQs takes 75.0% and AJo 25.0%, a margin of 49.9 points, with 5.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AQs vs AJo?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 74.6%, and with no shared suit it is 75.1% — a swing of up to 0.5 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AQs 50.3%, AJo 21.0%, random 28.7%. AQs drops 24.7 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AQs vs AJo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 14.2% of the time (level spots left out). When AQs leads, AJo comes back 12.5%. When AJo leads, AQs comes back 23.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
433 words / 29 distinct figures — Method