AJo vs ATo

When AJo and ATo get all in before the flop, AJo wins 72.7% of the time and ATo takes 27.3%. Broken down, AJo wins outright 68.7%, chops 8.0% and loses 23.3% — a margin of 45.5 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 72.5% (for example As Jh against Ad Tc); with both suits shared it is 73.0% (As Jh against Ah Ts). That is a spread of 0.54 points across the 108 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJo 46.1%, ATo 22.4%, random 31.5%. AJo gives up 26.6 points and ATo gives up 4.9, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AJo is worth 63.6% against a random hand (rank 15 of 169) and ATo is worth 62.6% (rank 19). The gap between them in the ranking is only 1 points, yet head to head the gap is 45.5 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJo scoops roughly 69 pots, splits about 8, and loses the remaining 23. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJo would be down to 16.1% and ATo to 15.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From ATo's side, 27.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.66:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 27.3% of the pot you are playing for. AJo holds the other 72.7% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 108 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes ATo really does hold exactly ATo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJo's 72.7% moves. Use the individual pages for AJo and ATo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AJo is ahead 84.3% of the time and ATo 15.7%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AJo leads on the flop, ATo comes back on the turn and river 13.0% of the time. When ATo leads on the flop, AJo turns it around 21.5% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.6% of the time from the flop and 84.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AJo leads 78.3% and ATo 19.5%. Counted exhaustively, AJo finishes with 72.85% equity (the 72.7% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).