AJs vs ATo
Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
- AJs Win
- 70.1%
- Tie
- 7.7%
- AJs Lose
- 22.2%
- Card combinations
- 36
- AJs vs random
- 65.4% · #11
- ATo vs random
- 62.6% · #19
Win, tie and loss for AJs
When AJs and ATo get all in before the flop, AJs wins 74.0% of the time and ATo takes 26.0%. Broken down, AJs wins outright 70.1%, chops 7.7% and loses 22.2% — a margin of 47.9 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 73.8% (for example As Js against Ah Ts); with no shared suit it is 74.1% (As Js against Ah Td). That is a spread of 0.26 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJs 49.1%, ATo 21.4%, random 29.5%. AJs gives up 24.8 points and ATo gives up 4.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AJs is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 11 of 169) and ATo is worth 62.6% (rank 19). The gap between them in the ranking is only 2.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 47.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJs scoops roughly 70 pots, splits about 8, and loses the remaining 22. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJs would be down to 20.1% and ATo to 15.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From ATo's side, 26.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.85:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 26.0% of the pot you are playing for. AJs holds the other 74.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes ATo really does hold exactly ATo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJs's 74.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AJs and ATo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AJs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Js vs Ah Td | 24 | 74.1% | 70.2% | 7.7% | 22.1% |
| One shared suit | As Js vs Ah Ts | 12 | 73.8% | 69.9% | 7.8% | 22.3% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AJs is ahead 84.4% of the time and ATo 15.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AJs leads on the flop, ATo comes back on the turn and river 12.7% of the time. When ATo leads on the flop, AJs turns it around 25.1% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.7% of the time from the flop and 84.8% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AJs leads 78.9% and ATo 19.0%. Counted exhaustively, AJs finishes with 73.94% equity (the 74.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AJs wins | Tie | ATo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs ahead | 84.4% | 78.4% | 8.87% | 12.7% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| ATo ahead | 15.6% | 25.1% | 1.13% | 73.8% |
| After the turn | How often | AJs wins | Tie | ATo wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs ahead | 78.9% | 84.9% | 7.35% | 7.71% |
| Level (same hand) | 2.13% | 12.7% | 80.9% | 6.40% |
| ATo ahead | 19.0% | 15.0% | 0.785% | 84.2% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AJs | ATo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65.4% | 62.6% |
| 2 | 48.0% | 44.4% |
| 4 | 32.2% | 27.8% |
| 8 | 20.1% | 15.2% |
Related
FAQ
AJs or ATo — which is ahead preflop?
AJs is the favourite. AJs takes 74.0% and ATo 26.0%, a margin of 47.9 points, with 7.7% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AJs vs ATo?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 73.8%, and with no shared suit it is 74.1% — a swing of up to 0.26 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AJs 49.1%, ATo 21.4%, random 29.5%. AJs drops 24.8 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AJs vs ATo?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 14.6% of the time (level spots left out). When AJs leads, ATo comes back 12.7%. When ATo leads, AJs comes back 25.1%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
433 words / 29 distinct figures — Method