AQs vs AJs
Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
- AQs Win
- 68.2%
- Tie
- 5.4%
- AQs Lose
- 26.4%
- Card combinations
- 12
- AQs vs random
- 66.2% · #10
- AJs vs random
- 65.4% · #11
Win, tie and loss for AQs
When AQs and AJs get all in before the flop, AQs wins 70.9% of the time and AJs takes 29.1%. Broken down, AQs wins outright 68.2%, chops 5.4% and loses 26.4% — a margin of 41.8 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 70.9% (for example As Qs against Ah Jh); with no shared suit it is 70.9% (As Qs against Ah Jh). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AQs 48.0%, AJs 25.4%, random 26.6%. AQs gives up 22.9 points and AJs gives up 3.7, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AQs is worth 66.2% against a random hand (rank 10 of 169) and AJs is worth 65.4% (rank 11). The gap between them in the ranking is only 0.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 41.8 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AQs scoops roughly 68 pots, splits about 5, and loses the remaining 26. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AQs would be down to 21.1% and AJs to 20.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AJs's side, 29.1% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.44:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 29.1% of the pot you are playing for. AQs holds the other 70.9% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJs really does hold exactly AJs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AQs's 70.9% moves. Use the individual pages for AQs and AJs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AQs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Qs vs Ah Jh | 12 | 70.9% | 68.2% | 5.4% | 26.4% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AQs is ahead 83.6% of the time and AJs 16.4%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AQs leads on the flop, AJs comes back on the turn and river 16.8% of the time. When AJs leads on the flop, AQs turns it around 23.1% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.8% of the time from the flop and 85.1% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AQs leads 77.1% and AJs 21.5%. Counted exhaustively, AQs finishes with 70.81% equity (the 70.9% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AQs wins | Tie | AJs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs ahead | 83.6% | 77.0% | 6.13% | 16.8% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AJs ahead | 16.4% | 23.1% | 1.01% | 75.9% |
| After the turn | How often | AQs wins | Tie | AJs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs ahead | 77.1% | 84.6% | 5.24% | 10.1% |
| Level (same hand) | 1.42% | 13.2% | 77.3% | 9.51% |
| AJs ahead | 21.5% | 12.7% | 0.691% | 86.6% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AQs | AJs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66.2% | 65.4% |
| 2 | 49.7% | 48.0% |
| 4 | 34.0% | 32.2% |
| 8 | 21.1% | 20.1% |
Related
FAQ
AQs or AJs — which is ahead preflop?
AQs is the favourite. AQs takes 70.9% and AJs 29.1%, a margin of 41.8 points, with 5.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AQs vs AJs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 70.9%, and with no shared suit it is 70.9% — a swing of up to 0 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AQs 48.0%, AJs 25.4%, random 26.6%. AQs drops 22.9 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AQs vs AJs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 17.9% of the time (level spots left out). When AQs leads, AJs comes back 16.8%. When AJs leads, AQs comes back 23.1%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
433 words / 27 distinct figures — Method