AJs vs ATs

When AJs and ATs get all in before the flop, AJs wins 69.8% of the time and ATs takes 30.2%. Broken down, AJs wins outright 66.1%, chops 7.4% and loses 26.6% — a margin of 39.5 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 69.8% (for example As Js against Ah Th); with no shared suit it is 69.8% (As Js against Ah Th). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AJs 46.8%, ATs 25.6%, random 27.6%. AJs gives up 23 points and ATs gives up 4.6, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AJs is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 11 of 169) and ATs is worth 64.6% (rank 13). The gap between them in the ranking is only 0.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 39.5 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AJs scoops roughly 66 pots, splits about 7, and loses the remaining 27. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AJs would be down to 20.1% and ATs to 18.9%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From ATs's side, 30.2% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.31:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 30.2% of the pot you are playing for. AJs holds the other 69.8% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes ATs really does hold exactly ATs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AJs's 69.8% moves. Use the individual pages for AJs and ATs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AJs is ahead 83.6% of the time and ATs 16.4%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AJs leads on the flop, ATs comes back on the turn and river 17.0% of the time. When ATs leads on the flop, AJs turns it around 24.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.5% of the time from the flop and 83.2% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AJs leads 76.4% and ATs 21.5%. Counted exhaustively, AJs finishes with 69.87% equity (the 69.8% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).