AKo vs ATs

When AKo and ATs get all in before the flop, AKo wins 69.5% of the time and ATs takes 30.5%. Broken down, AKo wins outright 67.3%, chops 4.4% and loses 28.3% — a margin of 39 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 69.1% (for example As Kh against Ad Td); with one shared suit it is 70.3% (As Kh against Ah Th). That is a spread of 1.17 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKo 46.3%, ATs 25.7%, random 28.0%. AKo gives up 23.2 points and ATs gives up 4.8, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKo is worth 65.4% against a random hand (rank 12 of 169) and ATs is worth 64.6% (rank 13). The gap between them in the ranking is only 0.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 39 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKo scoops roughly 67 pots, splits about 4, and loses the remaining 28. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKo would be down to 19.1% and ATs to 18.9%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From ATs's side, 30.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.28:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 30.5% of the pot you are playing for. AKo holds the other 69.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes ATs really does hold exactly ATs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKo's 69.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AKo and ATs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKo is ahead 83.4% of the time and ATs 16.6%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKo leads on the flop, ATs comes back on the turn and river 17.8% of the time. When ATs leads on the flop, AKo turns it around 18.1% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 77.7% of the time from the flop and 85.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKo leads 76.6% and ATs 22.3%. Counted exhaustively, AKo finishes with 69.53% equity (the 69.5% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).