AKs vs 32o

When AKs and 32o get all in before the flop, AKs wins 67.5% of the time and 32o takes 32.5%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 67.2%, chops 0.6% and loses 32.1% — a margin of 35.1 points. Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 67.4% (for example As Ks against 3s 2h); with no shared suit it is 67.7% (As Ks against 3h 2d). That is a spread of 0.24 points across the 48 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 51.7%, 32o 20.4%, random 27.9%. AKs gives up 15.9 points and 32o gives up 12, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 32o is worth 32.3% (rank 169). The gap between them in the ranking is only 34.9 points, yet head to head the gap is 35.1 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 67 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 32. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 32o to 6.2%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 32o's side, 32.5% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 2.08:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 32.5% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 67.5% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 48 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 32o really does hold exactly 32o; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 67.5% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 32o to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 74.1% of the time and 32o 25.9%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKs leads on the flop, 32o comes back on the turn and river 18.0% of the time. When 32o leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 27.0% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 79.0% of the time from the flop and 87.0% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKs leads 70.2% and 32o 29.8%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 67.57% equity (the 67.5% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).