JJ vs AJs
Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
- JJ Win
- 64.8%
- Tie
- 1.6%
- JJ Lose
- 33.6%
- Card combinations
- 12
- JJ vs random
- 77.5% · #4
- AJs vs random
- 65.4% · #11
Win, tie and loss for JJ
When JJ and AJs get all in before the flop, JJ wins 65.6% of the time and AJs takes 34.4%. Broken down, JJ wins outright 64.8%, chops 1.6% and loses 33.6% — a margin of 31.2 points. Pair against one overcard — roughly 70/30 in the pair's favour.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 65.6% (for example Js Jh against Ad Jd); with no shared suit it is 65.6% (Js Jh against Ad Jd). That is a spread of 0 points across the 12 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes JJ 51.3%, AJs 30.4%, random 18.3%. JJ gives up 14.3 points and AJs gives up 4, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, JJ is worth 77.5% against a random hand (rank 4 of 169) and AJs is worth 65.4% (rank 11). The gap between them in the ranking is only 12.1 points, yet head to head the gap is 31.2 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, JJ scoops roughly 65 pots, splits about 2, and loses the remaining 34. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, JJ would be down to 21.7% and AJs to 20.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From AJs's side, 34.4% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.91:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 34.4% of the pot you are playing for. JJ holds the other 65.6% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 12 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJs really does hold exactly AJs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, JJ's 65.6% moves. Use the individual pages for JJ and AJs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | JJ Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Js Jh vs Ad Jd | 12 | 65.6% | 64.8% | 1.6% | 33.6% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, JJ is ahead 81.5% of the time and AJs 18.5%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When JJ leads on the flop, AJs comes back on the turn and river 20.5% of the time. When AJs leads on the flop, JJ turns it around 6.48% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 80.4% of the time from the flop and 88.5% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, JJ leads 73.6% and AJs 26.1%. Counted exhaustively, JJ finishes with 65.49% equity (the 65.6% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | JJ wins | Tie | AJs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ ahead | 81.5% | 77.9% | 1.58% | 20.5% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| AJs ahead | 18.5% | 6.48% | 2.01% | 91.5% |
| After the turn | How often | JJ wins | Tie | AJs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ ahead | 73.6% | 86.5% | 1.23% | 12.3% |
| Level (same hand) | 0.348% | 2.11% | 90.7% | 7.16% |
| AJs ahead | 26.1% | 3.96% | 1.68% | 94.4% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | JJ | AJs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 77.5% | 65.4% |
| 2 | 61.4% | 48.0% |
| 4 | 40.2% | 32.2% |
| 8 | 21.7% | 20.1% |
Related
FAQ
JJ or AJs — which is ahead preflop?
JJ is the favourite. JJ takes 65.6% and AJs 34.4%, a margin of 31.2 points, with 1.6% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change JJ vs AJs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 65.6%, and with no shared suit it is 65.6% — a swing of up to 0 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is JJ 51.3%, AJs 30.4%, random 18.3%. JJ drops 14.3 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in JJ vs AJs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 17.9% of the time (level spots left out). When JJ leads, AJs comes back 20.5%. When AJs leads, JJ comes back 6.48%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
428 words / 28 distinct figures — Method