AKs vs 98s
Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.
- AKs Win
- 62.7%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AKs Lose
- 36.8%
- Card combinations
- 16
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
- 98s vs random
- 50.8% · #83
Win, tie and loss for AKs
When AKs and 98s get all in before the flop, AKs wins 63.0% of the time and 98s takes 37.0%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 62.7%, chops 0.5% and loses 36.8% — a margin of 25.9 points. Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 62.2% (for example As Ks against 9h 8h); with one shared suit it is 65.1% (As Ks against 9s 8s). That is a spread of 2.85 points across the 16 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 49.1%, 98s 29.9%, random 21.0%. AKs gives up 13.8 points and 98s gives up 7.1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 98s is worth 50.8% (rank 83). The gap between them in the ranking is only 16.4 points, yet head to head the gap is 25.9 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 63 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 37. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 98s to 14.4%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 98s's side, 37.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.7:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 37.1% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 63.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 16 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 98s really does hold exactly 98s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 63.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 98s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AKs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ks vs 9h 8h | 12 | 62.2% | 62.0% | 0.5% | 37.5% |
| One shared suit | As Ks vs 9s 8s | 4 | 65.1% | 64.8% | 0.6% | 34.6% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 72.9% of the time and 98s 27.1%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AKs leads on the flop, 98s comes back on the turn and river 22.8% of the time. When 98s leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 24.7% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 76.2% of the time from the flop and 85.8% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AKs leads 67.4% and 98s 32.6%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 62.88% equity (the 63.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AKs wins | Tie | 98s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 72.9% | 76.7% | 0.464% | 22.8% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 98s ahead | 27.1% | 24.7% | 0.529% | 74.8% |
| After the turn | How often | AKs wins | Tie | 98s wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 67.4% | 86.1% | 0.492% | 13.4% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 98s ahead | 32.6% | 14.3% | 0.459% | 85.3% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AKs | 98s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67.2% | 50.8% |
| 2 | 50.3% | 36.2% |
| 4 | 35.4% | 23.6% |
| 8 | 22.4% | 14.4% |
Related
FAQ
AKs or 98s — which is ahead preflop?
AKs is the favourite. AKs takes 63.0% and 98s 37.0%, a margin of 25.9 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AKs vs 98s?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 62.2%, and with one shared suit it is 65.1% — a swing of up to 2.85 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AKs 49.1%, 98s 29.9%, random 21.0%. AKs drops 13.8 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AKs vs 98s?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 23.3% of the time (level spots left out). When AKs leads, 98s comes back 22.8%. When 98s leads, AKs comes back 24.7%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
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