AKs vs JTs
Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.
- AKs Win
- 61.8%
- Tie
- 0.5%
- AKs Lose
- 37.7%
- Card combinations
- 16
- AKs vs random
- 67.2% · #8
- JTs vs random
- 57.5% · #46
Win, tie and loss for AKs
When AKs and JTs get all in before the flop, AKs wins 62.0% of the time and JTs takes 38.0%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 61.8%, chops 0.5% and loses 37.7% — a margin of 24.1 points. Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 61.4% (for example As Ks against Jh Th); with one shared suit it is 64.1% (As Ks against Js Ts). That is a spread of 2.73 points across the 16 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 47.2%, JTs 32.5%, random 20.3%. AKs gives up 14.8 points and JTs gives up 5.5, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and JTs is worth 57.5% (rank 46). The gap between them in the ranking is only 9.7 points, yet head to head the gap is 24.1 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 62 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 38. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and JTs to 18.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From JTs's side, 38.0% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.63:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 38.0% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 62.0% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 16 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes JTs really does hold exactly JTs; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 62.0% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and JTs to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | AKs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | As Ks vs Jh Th | 12 | 61.4% | 61.1% | 0.5% | 38.4% |
| One shared suit | As Ks vs Js Ts | 4 | 64.1% | 63.8% | 0.6% | 35.6% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 73.0% of the time and JTs 27.0%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When AKs leads on the flop, JTs comes back on the turn and river 24.5% of the time. When JTs leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 26.2% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.5% of the time from the flop and 84.7% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, AKs leads 67.2% and JTs 32.8%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 62.01% equity (the 62.0% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | AKs wins | Tie | JTs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 73.0% | 74.9% | 0.573% | 24.5% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| JTs ahead | 27.0% | 26.2% | 0.323% | 73.5% |
| After the turn | How often | AKs wins | Tie | JTs wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs ahead | 67.2% | 84.6% | 0.610% | 14.7% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| JTs ahead | 32.8% | 14.9% | 0.293% | 84.8% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | AKs | JTs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67.2% | 57.5% |
| 2 | 50.3% | 41.9% |
| 4 | 35.4% | 28.5% |
| 8 | 22.4% | 18.1% |
Related
FAQ
AKs or JTs — which is ahead preflop?
AKs is the favourite. AKs takes 62.0% and JTs 38.0%, a margin of 24.1 points, with 0.5% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change AKs vs JTs?
Yes. With no shared suit it is 61.4%, and with one shared suit it is 64.1% — a swing of up to 2.73 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is AKs 47.2%, JTs 32.5%, random 20.3%. AKs drops 14.8 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in AKs vs JTs?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 25.0% of the time (level spots left out). When AKs leads, JTs comes back 24.5%. When JTs leads, AKs comes back 26.2%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
431 words / 30 distinct figures — Method