AKs vs 54s

When AKs and 54s get all in before the flop, AKs wins 61.3% of the time and 54s takes 38.7%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 61.0%, chops 0.6% and loses 38.4% — a margin of 22.6 points. Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 60.6% (for example As Ks against 5h 4h); with one shared suit it is 63.4% (As Ks against 5s 4s). That is a spread of 2.8 points across the 16 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 47.9%, 54s 28.2%, random 23.9%. AKs gives up 13.4 points and 54s gives up 10.5, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and 54s is worth 41.4% (rank 138). The gap between them in the ranking is only 25.8 points, yet head to head the gap is 22.6 points, which is roughly what the ranking table predicts.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 61 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 38. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and 54s to 12.6%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From 54s's side, 38.7% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.58:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 38.7% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 61.3% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 16 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 54s really does hold exactly 54s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 61.3% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and 54s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 72.7% of the time and 54s 27.3%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKs leads on the flop, 54s comes back on the turn and river 24.8% of the time. When 54s leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 24.8% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.6% of the time from the flop and 84.8% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKs leads 66.5% and 54s 33.5%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 61.34% equity (the 61.3% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).