AKs vs T9s

When AKs and T9s get all in before the flop, AKs wins 62.1% of the time and T9s takes 37.9%. Broken down, AKs wins outright 61.9%, chops 0.5% and loses 37.6% — a margin of 24.3 points. Two unpaired hands with no shared rank — the higher cards usually run 60–65%.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With no shared suit the number is 61.4% (for example As Ks against Th 9h); with one shared suit it is 64.4% (As Ks against Ts 9s). That is a spread of 3.03 points across the 16 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes AKs 47.8%, T9s 31.8%, random 20.4%. AKs gives up 14.3 points and T9s gives up 6.1, so the favourite loses more than the underdog does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, AKs is worth 67.2% against a random hand (rank 8 of 169) and T9s is worth 54.0% (rank 65). The gap between them in the ranking is only 13.2 points, yet head to head the gap is 24.3 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, AKs scoops roughly 62 pots, splits about one, and loses the remaining 38. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, AKs would be down to 22.4% and T9s to 16.3%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From T9s's side, 37.9% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.64:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 37.9% of the pot you are playing for. AKs holds the other 62.1% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 16 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes T9s really does hold exactly T9s; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, AKs's 62.1% moves. Use the individual pages for AKs and T9s to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, AKs is ahead 72.9% of the time and T9s 27.1%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When AKs leads on the flop, T9s comes back on the turn and river 24.4% of the time. When T9s leads on the flop, AKs turns it around 25.9% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.7% of the time from the flop and 84.9% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, AKs leads 67.1% and T9s 32.9%. Counted exhaustively, AKs finishes with 62.02% equity (the 62.1% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).