ATs vs AJo

When ATs and AJo get all in before the flop, ATs wins 31.4% of the time and AJo takes 68.6%. Broken down, ATs wins outright 27.6%, chops 7.7% and loses 64.8% — a margin of -37.2 points. Domination — a shared rank turns this into a kicker fight, and kicker fights are lopsided.

The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 30.8% (for example As Ts against Ah Js); with no shared suit it is 31.7% (As Ts against Ah Jd). That is a spread of 0.93 points across the 36 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.

Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes ATs 26.4%, AJo 44.0%, random 29.6%. ATs gives up 5 points and AJo gives up 24.6, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.

Taken on their own, ATs is worth 64.6% against a random hand (rank 13 of 169) and AJo is worth 63.6% (rank 15). The gap between them in the ranking is only 1 points, yet head to head the gap is 37.2 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.

Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, ATs scoops roughly 28 pots, splits about 8, and loses the remaining 65. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, ATs would be down to 18.9% and AJo to 16.1%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.

From AJo's side, 68.6% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 0.46:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 68.6% of the pot you are playing for. ATs holds the other 31.4% of that same pot.

Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 36 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes AJo really does hold exactly AJo; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, ATs's 31.4% moves. Use the individual pages for ATs and AJo to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.

When the three flop cards are out, ATs is ahead 16.6% of the time and AJo 83.4%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.

When ATs leads on the flop, AJo comes back on the turn and river 20.4% of the time. When AJo leads on the flop, ATs turns it around 17.3% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 74.5% of the time from the flop and 83.2% from the turn (level spots left out).

With the turn out, ATs leads 22.0% and AJo 75.9%. Counted exhaustively, ATs finishes with 31.32% equity (the 31.4% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).