JTs vs 22
Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
- JTs Win
- 53.0%
- Tie
- 1.4%
- JTs Lose
- 45.6%
- Card combinations
- 24
- JTs vs random
- 57.5% · #46
- 22 vs random
- 50.2% · #88
Win, tie and loss for JTs
When JTs and 22 get all in before the flop, JTs wins 53.7% of the time and 22 takes 46.3%. Broken down, JTs wins outright 53.0%, chops 1.4% and loses 45.6% — a margin of 7.4 points. Pair against two overcards — the classic coinflip, with the pair a shade ahead.
The same matchup shifts depending on how the suits overlap. With one shared suit the number is 53.6% (for example Js Ts against 2s 2h); with no shared suit it is 53.8% (Js Ts against 2h 2d). That is a spread of 0.14 points across the 24 distinct card combinations, and it comes almost entirely from whether the two hands are fighting over the same flush.
Add a third player holding a random hand and the split becomes JTs 42.4%, 22 29.4%, random 28.3%. JTs gives up 11.3 points and 22 gives up 17, so the underdog loses more than the favourite does. Extra players always eat into the leader's share faster than into anyone else's.
Taken on their own, JTs is worth 57.5% against a random hand (rank 46 of 169) and 22 is worth 50.2% (rank 88). The gap between them in the ranking is only 7.3 points, yet head to head the gap is 7.4 points — a reminder that a ranking table and a direct matchup are two different questions.
Framed as a run of one hundred identical all-ins, JTs scoops roughly 53 pots, splits about 1, and loses the remaining 46. Against eight random opponents rather than this one specific hand, JTs would be down to 18.1% and 22 to 12.5%, so the shape of this particular confrontation matters far more than either hand's standing in the overall ranking.
From 22's side, 46.3% is the break-even point for calling an all-in at 1.16:1 pot odds. Put another way, the call is profitable as long as the amount you have to put in is less than 46.3% of the pot you are playing for. JTs holds the other 53.7% of that same pot.
Two caveats keep this figure honest. First, it is showdown equity across all 24 card combinations with five board cards still to come — there is no fold equity in it, so the value of shoving in practice is usually higher than the raw percentage suggests. Second, it assumes 22 really does hold exactly 22; against the wider range a player would actually get all in with, JTs's 53.7% moves. Use the individual pages for JTs and 22 to see how each of them fares against all 168 other holdings before treating this single pairing as the whole picture.
Overlapping suits move the number
200,000 simulated showdowns per condition. The example column shows one concrete four-card layout.
| Condition | Example | Combos | JTs Equity | Win | Tie | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No shared suit | Js Ts vs 2h 2d | 12 | 53.8% | 53.0% | 1.4% | 45.5% |
| One shared suit | Js Ts vs 2s 2h | 12 | 53.6% | 52.9% | 1.4% | 45.7% |
Who leads on each street, and how often it flips
Exact counts from the 48 unseen cards: all 17,296 flops × 990 turn-and-river pairs, and all 194,580 four-card turns × 44 rivers, for every suit combination — no simulation.
When the three flop cards are out, JTs is ahead 32.9% of the time and 22 67.1%, and the two hands are never level on the flop. "Ahead" means the better best-five-card hand from the cards showing plus the two hole cards; draws are not counted.
When JTs leads on the flop, 22 comes back on the turn and river 10.1% of the time. When 22 leads on the flop, JTs turns it around 35.4% of the time. The hand in front holds on to win 71.5% of the time from the flop and 83.6% from the turn (level spots left out).
With the turn out, JTs leads 43.9% and 22 56.1%. Counted exhaustively, JTs finishes with 53.84% equity (the 53.7% at the top of the page is a 200,000-hand simulation).
| After the flop | How often | JTs wins | Tie | 22 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTs ahead | 32.9% | 89.3% | 0.660% | 10.1% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 22 ahead | 67.1% | 35.4% | 1.80% | 62.8% |
| After the turn | How often | JTs wins | Tie | 22 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTs ahead | 43.9% | 93.0% | 1.00% | 5.98% |
| Level (same hand) | 0% | Never happens | ||
| 22 ahead | 56.1% | 21.9% | 1.76% | 76.3% |
"Ahead" compares the best five-card hands available at that point (draws are not counted). "Flips" is the share of leads that end in a loss, with level spots left out.
Adding a random third hand
200,000 simulated showdowns, with the third hand dealt at random each time.
At a bigger table
| Random opponents | JTs | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57.5% | 50.2% |
| 2 | 41.9% | 30.2% |
| 4 | 28.5% | 17.8% |
| 8 | 18.1% | 12.5% |
Related
FAQ
JTs or 22 — which is ahead preflop?
JTs is the favourite. JTs takes 53.7% and 22 46.3%, a margin of 7.4 points, with 1.4% of hands ending in a chop.
Do the suits change JTs vs 22?
Yes. With one shared suit it is 53.6%, and with no shared suit it is 53.8% — a swing of up to 0.14 points.
What happens three-way?
With one extra random hand in the pot the split is JTs 42.4%, 22 29.4%, random 28.3%. JTs drops 11.3 points compared with heads-up.
How often does the flop leader lose in JTs vs 22?
The hand ahead on the flop goes on to lose 27.1% of the time (level spots left out). When JTs leads, 22 comes back 10.1%. When 22 leads, JTs comes back 35.4%. Exact counts over every flop, turn and river.
431 words / 29 distinct figures — Method